Wednesday, 17 October 2012

The final published statistics about the challenge

So, here we are once again. Stats time, stat!

So, as you may/may not know, I'm keeping a comprehensive database of everyone I will meet from 1st Jan-12th Dec whilst doing this challenge. I'm now in the final stages. Here's the last stats I will publish until after the event. This gives me a chance to avoid questions like "how many people have I met"/"what's the signup rate like", etc. I won't tell anyone myself whether I have formed the orchestra and succeeded until 12th Dec, or whenever/whenever that final presentation will be. So....what I know from musicians I have met in the last 291 days.....

  • I have found all main instruments that make up a modern symphony orchestra
  • 65.58% of musicians I have found are carrying string instruments
  • 19.07% of musicians I have found are carrying woodwind instruments
  • 12.56% of musicians I have found are carrying brass instruments. 
  • 1.86% of musicians I have found are carrying non-orchestra instruments*
  • 0.93% of musicians I have found are carrying percussion instruments

* Non-orchestra instruments are instruments I have mistaken for other instruments initially, but still been interested in potentially using. These are accordion, ukelele and cavaco.
 

BRASS

  • 29.63% are women
  • 70.37% are men
  • 81.48% express interest (yes) or possible interest (maybe) and give me their e-mail details
  • Of these above interested musicians, 22.73% of them have responded to say they are free on the date of the performance and interested in joining the orchestra.
  • So, I have an 18.52% chance when I meet a brass player that they will be interested, available, and willing to be a part of the orchestra.

WOODWIND

  • 46.34% are women
  • 53.66% are men
  • 87.80% express interest (yes) or possible interest (maybe) and give me their e-mail details
  • Of these interested musicians, 16.67% of them have responded to say something like "yep, count me in for performance day"
  • So, I have a 14.63% chance when I meet a woodwind player that they will be interested, available, and willing to be part of the orchestra

STRING

  • 61.70% are women
  • 38.30% are men
  • 78% express interest (yes) or possible interest (maybe) and give me their e-mail details
  • Of these interested musicians, 10% of them have responded to say something like "yes, I'm available and would perform in an orchestra of strangers"
  • So, I have a 12.82% chance when I meet a string player that they will be interested, available, and willing to be part of the orchestra

PERCUSSION

  • 100% are men
  • 100% express interest (yes) or possible interest (maybe) and give me their e-mail details
  • Of these interested musicians, 50% of them have responded, but none have confirmed they are free and willing to join the orchestra
  • So, I currently have a 0% chance when I meet a percussionist that they will be interested, available, and willing to be part of the orchestra

So, what we know from this?


- Whilst I seem to be twice as likely to get a positive e-mail response from an interested brass player than an interested string player, you have to note that I have met significantly more string players, so it's likely the response rate is more accurate.
- There seem to be more women performing string roles than any other section (although, interestingly, I haven't met a single female double-bassist or female harpist, but have been approached via 12.12.12.org.uk by a female double-bassist living in London who is now part of my band!) 

So, the most important fact for me now, with 56 days to go until 12.12.12., at this success rate, I calculate that I would need to meet the following amount of musicians to form the orchestra :
(symphony orchestra in bold and smaller chamber orchestra in brackets, plus I'm assuming the average 10.23% success rate for timpani/percussion).

Strings : 546 (202)
Woodwind : 109 (63)
Brass : 70 (27)
Percussion : 29 (9)

So, to make this succeed, it seems I'd have to meet 754 musicians to form a symphony orchestra, and 309 musicians to form a chamber orchestra.

I am going to have a very busy 56 days!!!

Wish me luck.
x

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